Since its founding in 1949, NATO has been the most successful military alliance in history. But now, for the first time in 77 years, its cohesion is threatened not just by an external foe, but from within—and the danger is real.
The Trump administration has made clear demands: European members must take on more, if not nearly all, responsibility for their own defense, allowing the US to focus on homeland security and a potential conflict with China over Taiwan. The Pentagon is already planning to redeploy troops from Europe to support these priorities.
For the first time, the next Supreme Allied Commander Europe could be a European, not an American. That shift could sever the link to the US nuclear umbrella and the Article Five guarantee that an attack on one is an attack on all.
Meanwhile, European allies are increasingly nervous about a possible Russian offensive. Some fear Moscow might seize a Baltic island or Norway's Svalbard as a fait accompli, using its nuclear superiority to deter a response. Russia's "active measures"—cyberattacks, sabotage, drone incursions, and nuclear threats—continue to sow discord.
To stay relevant, NATO must act. Beyond countering Russian meddling, the most viable option is a massive integration of unmanned air, land, and sea systems. The war in Ukraine has shown how cheap drones in large numbers can change the battlefield. Ukraine, a relatively small nation, has held off a much larger Russian force for nearly five years, thanks to drone-based tactics.
NATO's Supreme Allied Commander, US Air Force Gen. Alexus G. Grynkewich, recently outlined a strategy in Poland to "blunt, block, and break" any Russian attack. This aligns with a "Porcupine Strategy" that would make initial aggression so costly it becomes unthinkable. With 32 members, NATO could deploy tens of thousands of unmanned vehicles across its flanks and central Europe.
Imagine how Russia would fare against 32 Ukraines. Unmanned systems would be stationed from the UK, Greenland, and Scandinavia to the Baltic, Mediterranean, and Black Seas, and throughout central Europe. They would serve as the blunters, blockers, and breakers of any aggression.
Beyond deterrence, drones would reduce the need for US manned forces in Europe, easing any redeployment to Asia. They offer a cost-effective way to prevent and disrupt any Russian attack. Lessons from Ukraine are unique, but combining unmanned systems with artificial intelligence gives NATO an economically sound path forward.
The question is whether NATO will seize this opportunity. As intelligence officials warn of new threats, the alliance must adapt or risk becoming obsolete.
