Democrat Mary Peltola has surged to a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska's U.S. Senate race, according to Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ). With roughly 70% of the expected vote tallied as of Wednesday morning, Peltola holds 48.2% to Sullivan's 47.9%, a margin of just about 500 votes. The development puts a potential eighth Senate pickup within reach for Democrats, who have already flipped seven seats in this cycle.
Alaska's unique electoral geography means votes are reported by state house district rather than county. DDHQ's analysis shows Peltola outperforming her projected benchmarks in 26 of the state's 40 house districts, while Sullivan exceeds his marks in the remaining 14. Peltola currently leads in 24 districts, and the outstanding ballots may favor her further: districts where she is ahead have reported an average of 68.6% of their expected votes, compared to 73.2% in districts where Sullivan leads. That suggests more of her strong areas remain uncounted.
However, the race is far from decided. If neither candidate reaches 50% of the first-choice votes, Alaska will trigger its ranked-choice voting system, which redistributes second, third, and fourth preferences until one candidate secures a majority. That process cannot begin until all ballots are processed, and given the state's vast rural geography, ballots have 15 days after Election Day to arrive. According to nonpartisan election news site Votebeat, Alaska will not report additional results until November 10, when most remaining early and mail ballots are counted. Final results, including any ranked-choice tabulation, are expected by November 18.
Complicating the picture is a ballot measure to repeal ranked-choice voting, which is currently losing by about four points, per DDHQ. If that repeal fails, the system will remain in place for this election and future ones. Meanwhile, Alaska voters also approved a measure clarifying citizenship requirements for voting, a separate ballot initiative.
The Alaska race was once seen as a must-win for Democrats to retake the Senate, but their broader success this cycle has diminished its strategic weight. Democrats have already secured seven Senate seats, according to DDHQ projections, with Alaska and Mississippi still outstanding. Their gains were part of a sweeping national victory that handed the party control of both chambers of Congress.
Peltola, a former congresswoman, is seeking to reclaim the Senate seat she briefly held in the House, while Sullivan is vying for a third term. The outcome in Alaska will likely hinge on the ranked-choice tabulation, which could alter the final result if neither candidate reaches the majority threshold. With the state's slow vote-counting process, a final declaration may not come for days.
Nationally, Democrats are already looking ahead to their new congressional majority, with leaders vowing aggressive corporate oversight and AI regulation. The party's sweep has also sparked market rallies and set the stage for a contentious 2028 Republican primary as the GOP grapples with its post-Trump identity.
