Vice President Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are emerging as the early front-runners for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028, according to a new poll. On the Democratic side, former Vice President Kamala Harris leads a wide-open contest with no clear heir apparent.
The New York Times/Siena University survey, released last week, shows Vance with 33 percent support among Republican primary voters, a 10-point lead over Rubio. President Trump, who has repeatedly floated both men as potential successors, still commands 8 percent support—a sign of his enduring influence as he enters the second half of his final term.
Trump has often mentioned Vance and Rubio as possible contenders, though Vance has said he has never discussed a run with the president, and Rubio has stated he is not planning to mount a bid in the next cycle. Despite that, both remain at the top of the field, reflecting their prominence within the party.
Following Trump in the GOP poll is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who challenged Trump in the 2024 primary, with just 3 percent. Another 6 percent of Republican respondents named someone else, while 26 percent said they were undecided.
On the Democratic side, Harris leads with 12 percent, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom at 9 percent and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7 percent. Progressive Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, Senator Jon Ossoff of Georgia, and Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona each drew single-digit support—6 percent, 4 percent, and 3 percent, respectively.
The Democratic race is notably unsettled: 15 percent of respondents chose another candidate, and a striking 45 percent said they did not know whom they would support. This fragmentation suggests a highly competitive primary ahead.
The poll also highlights a strong appetite for centrism among voters. Roughly half of Democratic respondents said they want their party to move toward the political center as 2028 approaches, compared with 27 percent who favor a shift to the left and 21 percent who want to keep the current direction. Among independents, 72 percent said Democrats should moderate.
Independents are also looking for Republicans to distance themselves from Trump, with more than 80 percent saying the GOP should move away from the former president. However, only about a third of Republicans agree, indicating a persistent divide between the party base and the broader electorate.
This dynamic is playing out as both parties gear up for the midterms. Recent early voting surges in key states have boosted Democratic hopes, while Trump and Vance continue to rally the GOP base in red states amid ongoing legal battles.
The survey was conducted October 12-19 among 3,494 voters, with a margin of sampling error of 1.9 percentage points for the likely electorate and registered voters.
