Election Day has arrived, and President Trump's political future is on the ballot. After a furious campaign sprint—28 in-person rallies plus a series of telerallies—voters are deciding whether to hand Democrats control of Congress and blunt his legislative agenda. The stakes are existential for the GOP, which is scrambling to hold its narrow majorities in both chambers.
Trump's final push took him to familiar battlegrounds and unexpected trouble spots: Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Kansas, and Alaska, but also deep-red Mississippi and South Carolina, where polls show surprisingly tight races. His approval rating has sunk to 38%—the lowest for a president at this point in 20 years—and that drag is showing in traditionally safe territory.
Democrats See a Path to the Senate
The Cook Political Report on Monday shifted the Michigan Senate race from a toss-up to lean Democratic, and Decision Desk HQ projects Democratic pickups in Texas, Alaska, and Maine—enough to flip the chamber. Political analyst Nate Silver has gone further, predicting a “blue tsunami” that could also threaten Republican House seats. Democrats are already preparing to use a House majority to launch investigations into Trump's D.C. renovation deals and other potential abuses of power.
Republicans, meanwhile, are bracing for a wipeout. Some party strategists have accused Trump of focusing more on his own grievances than on the campaign trail, with one GOP insider noting he seemed more interested in the reflecting pool at the White House than in shoring up vulnerable incumbents.
Global Stakes: Iran on the Brink
Overseas, the U.S. military has targeted radar detectors and missile launchers on Iran's Qeshm Island, as the Trump administration weighs renewing strikes after the midterms. Tehran has put the onus on Trump to avert a full-scale war, but the strikes near the Strait of Hormuz have raised the temperature in an already volatile region.
Trump is expected to watch the returns from a viewing reception at the White House, surrounded by aides and allies. But his relationship with the media remains fraught—he has already slammed Fox News' Jessica Tarlov and switched off midterm coverage, a sign of his frustration with the networks' calls.
What to Watch Tonight
Key races to track include the Kentucky special election, where a Trump-endorsed Republican is favored to hold the late Thomas Massie's seat, and the Texas Senate race, where a Democratic upset would send shockwaves through the GOP. Voters in Idaho, meanwhile, are picking a state firearm as part of America's 250th anniversary—a symbolic but telling cultural flashpoint.
As the night unfolds, the balance of power in Washington hangs in the balance. Will Trump's agenda survive, or will Democrats gain the oversight power they've been seeking? The answers will shape the next two years of American politics.
