As the 2026 midterm elections approach, a handful of battleground states are poised to test the resilience of split-ticket voting, with Republicans aiming to maintain their grip on both gubernatorial and Senate seats. While the phenomenon has become rarer in recent cycles, political analysts point to several states where voters may still cross party lines, potentially determining control of key offices.
According to a Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) forecast released last week, the average gap between Senate and gubernatorial race margins this cycle is expected to exceed 6 percentage points, with a median difference of 5 points. This is a stark contrast to 1990, when the average gap was 28 points and the median 25 points, illustrating how ticket-splitting has declined over the decades. Yet, even a small number of split-ticket voters could prove decisive in a political environment that appears challenging for Republicans.
More than two dozen states will hold simultaneous Senate and governor elections next week. DDHQ chief elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley identified seven states most likely to see ticket-splitting: Maine, Iowa, Alaska, New Hampshire, Georgia, Ohio, and Texas. Among these, three stand out as particularly significant: New Hampshire, Iowa, and Ohio.
New Hampshire: A Tradition of Split Tickets
New Hampshire is almost certain to see divided outcomes. DDHQ forecasts give Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte a 72 percent chance of winning reelection, while Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas has an 84 percent probability of succeeding retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen. The state has a history of splitting its ticket; in 2024, voters backed former Vice President Kamala Harris for president, Ayotte for governor, and two Democratic House members. Between 2017 and 2025, Republican Chris Sununu served as governor while Democrats Shaheen and Maggie Hassan held Senate seats.
University of New Hampshire political science professor Dante Scala noted that Ayotte used her early resources to define herself through ads on broadly bipartisan issues while tying Democratic challenger Cinde Warmington to the opioid crisis, a tactic that proved effective against Warmington in her unsuccessful 2024 gubernatorial bid. Warmington, a former lobbyist for OxyContin-maker Purdue Pharma, has acknowledged the work but said she was unaware of the drug's dangers at the time. "If I had known in 2001 what we all later learned, I would never, ever have done this work," she said in a video to supporters.
Scala argued that Ayotte has effectively linked Warmington to the opioid epidemic, and Warmington has lacked the resources to counter the attacks. In the Senate race, Scala pointed to President Trump's low approval ratings, the state's slight Democratic lean, and Sununu's challenge in a tough GOP environment as factors boosting Pappas. He added that Pappas has been "underrated" as a candidate, fitting into the state's tradition of center-left politicians like Shaheen, Hassan, and Rep. Maggie Goodlander. "The whole congressional delegation is very comfortable in that center-left lane," Scala said.
Iowa: A Governor's Race That Could Flip
In Iowa, Democrats are increasingly optimistic about winning the governor's mansion. Rob Sand, the state auditor, holds a 6-point lead over Republican Zach Lahn in DDHQ's polling average, giving him a 70 percent probability of victory. However, flipping retiring Sen. Joni Ernst's seat is a tougher task. Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democrat Josh Turek are nearly tied, with Hinson leading by less than half a percentage point and a 54 percent chance of winning, according to DDHQ.
Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, said Sand may be better positioned than Lahn because of independent and "no party" voters, who often decide elections in the state. These voters tend to favor incumbents, and Sand, as a statewide officeholder, may benefit from that tendency despite not being the sitting governor. Hagle noted that Lahn, a lesser-known candidate, has had to introduce himself to Republican voters, particularly after a competitive primary against Rep. Randy Feenstra. "He's got to convince Republicans that he's sufficiently conservative enough that they're going to actually vote for him," Hagle said.
In the Senate race, Hagle observed that Hinson has an advantage over Turek, who serves in the state House. Hinson's experience in Congress gives her a stronger command of policy details, as evidenced in debates. "Hinson had a much better command of the details and the programs, and she can speak to specific things that she introduced into Congress," Hagle said. "Turek just didn't have that."
Ohio: Democrats See an Opening
Ohio presents another battleground where Democrats are hoping to reclaim both the governor's mansion and a Senate seat. DDHQ's forecast gives Democrat Amy Acton, a former state health director, a 60 percent chance of defeating Republican Vivek Ramaswamy in the governor's race. Ramaswamy's campaign has faced turmoil following a controversial advertisement that drew criticism from within his own party, with Trump and Vance backing him amid the uproar, as reported by Trump and Vance supporting Ramaswamy.
The Senate race in Ohio is also competitive, with Democrats eyeing a pickup. The outcome could hinge on how voters balance their choices between the top of the ticket and down-ballot races. As split-ticket voting makes a comeback, Democrats are hoping to capitalize on a favorable national environment, while Republicans are working to minimize losses.
With control of the Senate and numerous governorships at stake, these three states could be pivotal. The ability of candidates to appeal beyond their partisan base may ultimately decide which party emerges victorious in the 2026 midterms.
