With less than a week to go before Election Day, the South Carolina Senate race is dead even, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Wednesday. Incumbent Republican Sen. Darline Graham and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews each draw 48 percent support among likely voters in a state that hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.
The survey, conducted Oct. 19-26 among 707 voters, carries a margin of error of 4.3 percentage points, making the contest a statistical toss-up. It underscores the unexpectedly competitive nature of the race to fill the seat left vacant by the sudden death of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, Darline's brother, who appointed her to finish his term.
Voter enthusiasm and early voting
Turnout expectations are high: 73 percent of respondents said they were “almost certain” or somewhat likely to vote next Tuesday, while 22 percent said they had already cast ballots. Only 3 percent indicated they were unlikely to vote, and 2 percent were unsure.
When asked which party they'd back if the election were held today, 51 percent chose the Republican candidate, 43 percent the Democrat, and 6 percent said they'd pick another candidate or were undecided.
Money gap and GOP intervention
The race has become a financial mismatch. Federal Election Commission filings show Graham has raised just $1.2 million as of Oct. 14, compared with Andrews's $23.8 million. To counter that disparity, national Republicans have poured more than $20 million into supporting Graham, according to ad-tracking firm AdImpact.
Former President Trump has made multiple visits to the state to boost Graham, most recently last week, and the Republican National Committee announced he will return Thursday, just days before the midterms.
Despite that backing, Graham faces internal GOP friction. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.), who lost to Graham in the special primary, said last week that while he would keep his promise to vote for her, his family would not. “I would not do an event with her, and I made that pretty clear,” Norman said on a radio show. “When I conceded the race, I called her and congratulated her, but that's the only time I've spoken with her.”
Democratic hopes and historical caution
Democrats have been burned in South Carolina before. In the 2020 Senate race, polls suggested a tight contest between the late senator and former Democratic National Committee chair Jaime Harrison, but Harrison lost by 10 points. That history looms over Andrews's campaign, though she has drawn bipartisan support from former governors in the state.
The Palmetto State race is part of a broader battle for Senate control. Nonpartisan forecaster Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) rates North Carolina, Alaska, Texas, and Ohio as the most likely Democratic flips, and gives Democrats better than 40 percent chances in Iowa and Maine, and over 30 percent in South Carolina and Kansas. DDHQ currently gives Graham a 67 percent chance of winning.
Republicans are also facing headwinds from global voter surges that signal a Democratic revival ahead of the midterms, and Trump's red-state push is aimed at shoring up GOP support, but the tightness of this race shows the party's vulnerability.
With control of the Senate hanging in the balance, both parties are treating South Carolina as a live battleground, even as historical trends suggest an uphill climb for Democrats.
