When political strategists map out the battle for the House majority, they typically focus on swing districts in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and New York. But the race that could have the most lasting impact on the House is happening in Texas, where Governor Greg Abbott's re-election bid could pave the way for another round of aggressive gerrymandering that locks in Republican advantages for the next decade.
Texas Republicans have already demonstrated their willingness to use redistricting to maximize their power. Last summer, under pressure from President Trump's political team, they redrew the state's congressional map mid-decade, a move that could deliver them 30 of Texas's 38 House seats. The new lines targeted districts built by coalitions of Latino and Black voters in the Rio Grande Valley, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Central Texas.
The Supreme Court upheld that map and went further in Louisiana v. Callais, gutting key Voting Rights Act protections against racial gerrymandering. Justice Elena Kagan's dissent warned that the ruling leaves those protections "all but a dead letter." For decades, those safeguards prevented Latino communities in Texas from being carved up and diluted. Now, according to a University of Houston professor, there are virtually no legal limits on how aggressively partisan a map can be.
Early reports indicate Texas Republicans plan to redraw the congressional map again in 2027, along with down-ballot maps. Every district that still gives Latino Texans a meaningful voice in Congress is on the table. That makes the governorship the last line of defense. A new map requires the governor's signature, and Abbott signed the last one and would sign the next. A Democratic governor could veto it, and Texas Republicans lack the votes to override.
So whoever wins this November decides whether the next gerrymander becomes law as early as next year. But the stakes extend beyond the next cycle. Texas is projected to gain four more congressional seats after the 2030 census, and Republicans will try to gerrymander those too. Every round of unchecked gerrymandering makes the math for a Democratic House harder and leaves one of the fastest-growing Latino populations in the country with fewer representatives who answer to them.
Republicans drew their maps betting that Latino voters would keep voting the way they did in 2024, when Trump won a majority of Texas Latinos and counties along the Rio Grande turned red. That bet now looks shaky. In March, Democratic primary turnout in Texas's 64 Latino-majority counties rose four points over 2022 and topped even the 2024 presidential year. A fall Univision-YouGov poll found Texas Latinos favor Democrats for Congress by 13 points, and roughly one in three Latinos who voted for Trump now have doubts or regret their choice. The reason? Latino families were promised lower prices and got higher ones—three-quarters of Latinos now disapprove of Trump's economic policies.
That's good news for Democrats this cycle, but statewide races in Texas are won at the margins. In 2018, the U.S. Senate race came down to fewer than 215,000 votes. Some 6.5 million Latino Texans are eligible to vote, and Latinos make up more than a quarter of registered voters. If they continue to swing back to Democrats, they can decide the governor's race—and with it, the shape of the congressional map for years to come.
Texas Democrats have a strong gubernatorial nominee in Gina Hinojosa, a state representative from Austin. Voters far beyond Texas should be watching this race, because its outcome will show up in the House majority long after Election Day. The fight for the House runs through Texas, and the fight for Texas runs through Latino communities. This November, Texas Latinos can protect their own representation and help decide who controls Congress. El futuro se decide en nuestras comunidades.
Linda Sanchez represents California's 38th District in the U.S. House and chairs CHC BOLD PAC, the campaign arm of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus.
