In a stunning upset, Republican Bo French has lost the Texas railroad commissioner race to Democrat Jon Rosenthal, according to Decision Desk HQ projections. The defeat marks a significant shift in a statewide race that Republicans had long controlled, and it follows a controversy that cost French support from some of his party's most prominent figures.
French, the GOP nominee, saw his campaign unravel after a September social media post in which he shared an image of South Asian students at a University of Texas at Austin football game. In the caption, he wrote, “I heard UT graduation this year looked like this. I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.” The post was widely condemned as racist and quickly ignited a firestorm within the Texas Republican establishment.
Outgoing U.S. Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) announced he would not vote for French, warning that his comments could “drag the whole ticket down.” Karl Rove, the longtime Republican strategist and former adviser to President George W. Bush, also broke with French, going so far as to say he would cast his ballot for Rosenthal. These defections underscored the depth of the backlash and likely sealed French’s fate in a race that had once seemed safely Republican.
Rosenthal, a mechanical engineer and four-term member of the Texas House, ran a campaign focused on pragmatic energy policy and regulatory oversight. His victory is a notable bright spot for Texas Democrats, who also saw state Rep. James Talarico flip a U.S. Senate seat in a separate upset. The railroad commissioner race, which oversees the state’s oil and gas industry, had not been a Democratic target in recent cycles, making Rosenthal’s win all the more striking.
The outcome is part of a broader Democratic surge in Texas that has reshaped the state’s political landscape. In addition to the Senate flip, Democrats have made gains in several congressional races, including pulido flips texas 15th and other key contests. The railroad commissioner race, while lower-profile, carries significant weight given its regulatory authority over the state’s energy sector.
French’s loss is a cautionary tale about the electoral consequences of inflammatory rhetoric. In a state where Republicans have dominated for decades, his defeat demonstrates that divisive messaging can alienate even loyal party supporters and hand winnable seats to the opposition.
Rosenthal’s victory also reflects a shift in voter priorities, with Texans increasingly focused on issues like grid reliability and environmental stewardship—areas where his engineering background gave him credibility. As he prepares to take office, he will inherit a commission that has been criticized for its handling of the 2021 winter storm and its oversight of the oil and gas industry.
For Republicans, the loss is a warning sign. With abbott concedes texas governor race and other statewide flips, the party’s hold on Texas appears more fragile than in previous cycles. The railroad commissioner race may be a bellwether for future contests, as demographic changes and suburban voter shifts continue to reshape the electorate.
Rosenthal’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment, but his victory speech reportedly emphasized unity and a commitment to serving all Texans. French has not publicly conceded, but Decision Desk HQ’s projection makes a comeback highly unlikely.
