The Horn of Africa has become a flashpoint for regional rivalries, with the potential for conflict that could draw in major powers. The ongoing Saudi-led war in Yemen and the US-Iran standoff have intensified focus on this volatile region, where simmering disputes could easily ignite.
Historian Simon Sebag-Montefiore has noted that the current scramble for Africa involves Middle Eastern and African powers, not European empires. Indeed, the Horn is crowded with players: Somalia, Somaliland, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Israel, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia all have competing interests.
Djibouti, a small nation bordering Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Somalia, hosts military bases for five foreign countries—the US, China, France, Japan, and Italy. The US base, Camp Lemonnier, serves as the headquarters for the Combined Joint Task Force-Horn of Africa and a key naval hub. China is expanding its support base, France maintains 1,500 troops, Japan has its only overseas base, and Italy operates a support facility.
Turkey has its largest overseas base in Somalia, providing military and economic aid since 2011. Israel, the only nation to recognize Somaliland's 1991 independence, reportedly operates from its territory against Houthi rebels in Yemen. Somaliland is seeking Israeli air defense systems to counter what it claims is a Turkish drone buildup in Somalia.
The United Arab Emirates, while not formally recognizing Somaliland, has provided military and economic support since the early 1990s. Dubai Ports World operates the port of Berbera, a former Soviet and US naval base, and the Emiratis are expanding their military presence there.
The rivalry between Israel and Turkey is particularly acute. Turkey, a backer of Somalia, opposes Somaliland's recognition, while Israel supports it. The two nations are also at odds in Syria, where both have troops and Israel has struck targets, drawing Turkish condemnation. A clash in the Horn could spill over into Syria, potentially destabilizing the region and opening doors for Russian or Iranian influence.
Ethiopia, a close ally of Israel, has been trying to secure access to the Red Sea. A deal with Somaliland was blocked by Turkey, and Eritrea fears Ethiopia might attempt to use its territory. The UAE supports Ethiopia against the Tigray People's Liberation Front, while Eritrea is accused of backing the rebels.
The Trump administration has been trying to mediate between Israel, Turkey, and Syria, but a similar effort for the Horn is needed. Both Israel and Turkey are US allies—Israel a non-NATO ally, Turkey a NATO member. Washington should work to reduce tensions before a war of words becomes a real conflict.
As Trump's political standing wavers, foreign policy successes could bolster his legacy. Mediating in the Horn would be a significant achievement, preventing a new war and maintaining stability in a critical region.
