California has become the epicenter of American politics, whether the rest of the country likes it or not. The Golden State's immense wealth, population, and media influence set national trends, even as it remains a Democratic stronghold. The sudden departure of disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell has thrown the governor's race into disarray, with a new CBS News poll showing a fragmented field and 26% of voters undecided.
Swalwell exited amid sexual assault allegations just before the last debate, leaving a topsy-turvy contest. The June 2 open jungle primary will send the top two vote-getters to November, regardless of party. Republican Mike Hilton, a former Fox News contributor, leads with just 16%, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Blanco has 10%. President Trump's endorsement boosts Hilton among the state's MAGA base, but anti-Trump sentiment runs high: only one in five primary voters want a candidate who backs Trump, and 70% disapprove of his performance.
Democratic Field Fragments
On the Democratic side, wealthy environmentalist Tom Steyer sits at 15%, having already spent over $132 million on media. Former Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra has surged to 13%, positioning himself as a steady hand in chaotic times. Former Rep. Katie Porter holds 9%. The large Democratic field risks splitting the vote, potentially allowing both Republicans to advance—a disaster for Democrats nationally and a blow to Gov. Gavin Newsom's presidential ambitions.
Newsom, along with former Vice President Kamala Harris and Rep. Ro Khanna, are all potential 2028 contenders. The governor's decision on whether to endorse a candidate could shape his national standing. The race also features a ballot measure imposing a 5% surcharge on billionaires' earnings, echoing a federal proposal by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Khanna.
Economic Anxiety Dominates
Seventy percent of primary voters say the cost of living in their area is unmanageable, reflecting widespread concern about Trump's economy. This affordability crisis could sink Republican candidates in California and beyond. The state also plays a pivotal role in the Democratic fight for the U.S. House, thanks to redistricting that created new Democratic seats.
The feisty California governor debate failed to produce a breakout moment, leaving the race volatile. A full 26% of voters remain undecided, setting up a wild finish. Political junkies who dismiss California's trends do so at their own peril.
Becerra's rise may signal whether Democrats seek a steady presence for 2028 to counter Trump's chaos. The outcome of this race—and the billionaires' tax—will foreshadow the impact of big money in the 2026 midterms and beyond. As Hilton and Steyer lead the crowded field, all eyes are on California.
