With two weeks until the midterms, the nonpartisan election forecaster Sabato's Crystal Ball has shifted 28 House races in the Democrats' direction, a move that now gives the party a clear path to the majority.
According to the Crystal Ball's updated ratings, Democrats would hold more than the 218 seats needed for control of the House even if they were to lose every race currently rated as a toss-up. The forecast, published Tuesday, marks a significant shift from earlier projections and reflects a wave of Democratic momentum.
"At this point not only would it be a shock if Republicans held the House, but it would also be a surprise if Democrats did not at least exceed the tiny-sized majorities of the last three Congresses," wrote Kyle Kondik, managing editor of the Crystal Ball, a project of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
The ratings changes are broad: six races moved from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican," six from "likely Republican" to "leans Republican," and one from "leans Republican" to "toss-up." On the Democratic side, nine races moved from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic," and six from "leans Democratic" to "likely Democratic."
Among the most striking shifts are in Iowa, where the Crystal Ball now rates three of the state's four House seats as "leans Democratic." Republicans currently hold all four of Iowa's seats in the lower chamber. The forecaster also moved two GOP-held seats in Arizona—the 1st and 6th Congressional Districts—to "leans Democratic."
The updated ratings also reflect the impact of Republican-led redistricting in several states, which has created a handful of competitive open seats. For example, the open Texas 35th Congressional District moved from "leans Republican" to "toss-up," and Rep. Don Davis's (D) bid for reelection in North Carolina's 1st District shifted from "toss-up" to "leans Democratic." Of the 15 seats that Republicans redrew to be more GOP-friendly, only three are now rated "safe Republican."
Kondik also highlighted several races where Democrats could pull off upsets in districts that were previously not considered competitive. These include the reelection bids of Reps. Victoria Spartz in Indiana's 5th District, Mike Flood in Nebraska's 1st District, and Jeff Van Drew—a former Democrat who switched parties in 2020—in New Jersey's 2nd District. All three are among the six races that moved from "safe Republican" to "likely Republican."
Kondik attributed the shift to a surge in Democratic fundraising and a series of unexpected challenges for Republican incumbents. "[Democratic] candidates just swamped Republicans in third quarter fundraising reports released late last week, blunting a GOP outside spending edge," he wrote. "Seemingly each day brings a new report of some new concern for Republicans in a race that wasn't on the radar earlier in the cycle."
The Crystal Ball's new projections align with other recent forecasts that have shown Democrats gaining ground in the final stretch of the campaign. However, the party still faces challenges, including a youth turnout gap that could dampen the expected wave. At the same time, Republicans are pouring money into key races, as seen in the 10-to-1 spending disparity in some districts.
With just two weeks to go, the race for the House remains fluid, but the Crystal Ball's latest numbers suggest that Democrats are now the clear favorites to take control. The party's path to the majority runs through suburban districts and newly competitive seats in states like Iowa and Arizona, where voters appear to be turning away from the GOP.
