Democrat Troy Jackson is projected to defeat Republican Sen. Susan Collins in Maine, flipping a GOP-held seat for the first time in nearly five decades, according to Decision Desk HQ. The race was one of the few true toss-ups in the fight for Senate control, and Jackson's victory is a major blow to Republican hopes of retaining the chamber.
With 76 percent of the vote counted early Wednesday, Jackson led Collins by roughly seven points, 53 percent to 46 percent. His win marks a stunning political ascent for the former state Senate president, who had run unsuccessfully for governor earlier in the cycle before becoming the Democratic nominee under unusual circumstances.
Jackson entered the race after the progressive primary winner, Graham Platner, dropped out amid sexual misconduct allegations that derailed his campaign. Maine Democrats quickly rallied behind Jackson, who had previously served as the state Senate's top Democrat and had built a reputation as a fierce advocate for working-class voters in rural areas.
Collins, a rare Republican who had repeatedly won statewide in the blue-leaning state, was seeking a sixth term that would have made her the longest-serving senator in Maine history. She first won the seat in 1996 after pledging to serve only two terms, but she later reversed course and was reelected by wide margins in 2014 and again in 2020, when her vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh angered many Democrats.
In this cycle, Collins tried to distance herself from President Trump, emphasizing her independent streak, her support for abortion rights, and her vote against Trump's signature "Big Beautiful Bill." She also touted her opposition to tariffs on Canada, calling the northern neighbor a vital trading partner. "I don't think that President Trump is going to come to Maine," Collins said during a debate. "I've heard nothing from his office, and I'm not exactly his favorite senator."
Jackson, however, argued that Collins had largely sided with the president and would offer more of the same as Mainers struggled with high prices. His campaign focused on economic populism, promising to fight for working families and hold corporations accountable.
The victory is a historic one for Democrats, who last held this seat in the 1970s. It also adds to the party's momentum in the midterm elections, which have seen Democrats flip several other Republican-held seats, including in Iowa and Ohio. House Democrats have already celebrated their midterm sweep, and Jackson's win is expected to bolster the party's Senate majority, which could blunt Trump's agenda in his second term.
Collins's defeat marks the end of a long political career that saw her become a key swing vote in the Senate. Her loss, along with other Republican setbacks, has raised questions about the GOP's ability to compete in moderate and suburban districts. Jackson's rise, meanwhile, underscores the power of grassroots Democratic organizing in states that have trended blue in recent presidential elections.
As the dust settles, Democrats are likely to focus on legislative priorities such as voting rights, economic relief, and health care, while Republicans regroup and plan their response to a shifting political landscape.
