A fresh Marist Poll conducted with NPR and PBS News shows Democrats holding an 8-point edge over Republicans in the final stretch before the midterm elections. The survey, released Tuesday, puts Democratic support at 52 percent among likely voters, with Republicans trailing at 44 percent.
The gap is driven in large part by independent voters, who favor Democratic candidates by a 52-39 margin. This marks a significant shift from recent cycles, where independents have often been more evenly split. The survey also found that 51 percent of respondents believe the Democrat in their district will win, compared to 46 percent who expect a Republican victory.
President Trump looms large over the contest, with 44 percent of voters saying their congressional vote is a referendum against him, while only 21 percent say they are voting to support him. Roughly a third, 35 percent, say the president is not a factor in their decision. Among independents, the anti-Trump sentiment is even stronger: 44 percent say they will vote against him, versus just 12 percent who will vote in his favor.
Enthusiasm is running high across the electorate, with 84 percent of voters saying they are enthusiastic or very enthusiastic about casting a ballot. Democrats are slightly more fired up, with 90 percent expressing enthusiasm, compared to 86 percent of Republicans. Independents lag somewhat, with 76 percent saying they are excited to vote.
The poll also probed confidence in election administration. Overall, 77 percent of voters are confident their state or local government will run elections fairly, but that confidence breaks down along partisan lines: 88 percent of Democrats trust the process, versus 75 percent of independents and 68 percent of Republicans. A notable 21 percent of all voters lack confidence.
On accepting results, 81 percent of respondents say losing candidates should concede, while 16 percent believe they should challenge the outcome. Democrats are most supportive of concession (90 percent), followed by independents (83 percent) and Republicans (70 percent).
Trump has been barnstorming red states in the campaign’s final days, but his approval rating remains underwater. The Marist survey pegs his approval at 40 percent, with 59 percent disapproving. His handling of the economy, inflation, the Iran conflict, and gas prices has weighed on his numbers, as soaring fuel costs continue to hurt Republican prospects.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist survey was conducted October 19-20 among 1,289 respondents, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. As the campaign enters its final week, the data suggests Democrats are well-positioned to defend their House majority, though the president’s last-minute rallies aim to energize the GOP base.
Still, the enthusiasm gap and independent leanings point to a challenging environment for Republicans, who are also contending with rural discontent over farm costs. With control of Congress at stake, both parties are making their final pitches to a electorate that appears ready for change.
