Senators are bracing for a contentious floor battle over the certification of Alaska's Senate race, where Democrat Mary Peltola could unseat Republican incumbent Dan Sullivan. The prospect of President Trump urging allies to challenge the outcome has put Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) in a precarious position, testing his reputation for procedural integrity.
Democratic senators generally view Thune as a straight shooter who would resist rejecting a result certified by Alaska's governor and lieutenant governor. But they are not ruling out the possibility that Trump will push MAGA allies to object if Sullivan loses narrowly and blames voter confusion over a similarly named opponent, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., who appears on the ballot without party affiliation.
“Everybody is gaming everything out, and everybody is preparing for everything,” a Senate Democratic aide said, reflecting the heightened anxiety over potential Republican objections if Peltola wins by a slim margin.
Potential Procedural Chaos
Sarah Binder, a Senate rules expert at George Washington University, warned that Trump's persistent claims of electoral fraud could lead to an unprecedented showdown. “We can't rule anything out at this stage just given the president's single-minded persistence that there's a lot of electoral fraud conducted by Democrats,” she said.
Binder noted that if Alaska certifies Peltola as the winner, Republicans could object to her swearing-in, creating a scenario with no clear procedural roadmap. “That gets us into the hornet's nest of what the Senate would do to challenge a literal swearing in,” she added.
Senate sources say a Trump-allied senator could signal an intention to object to Peltola—or another Democratic winner in a contested race—taking the oath in 2027. This would force Thune and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer (N.Y.) to negotiate a resolution.
Political Context and Polls
Republican sources express confidence that Sullivan will prevail, but recent polls show Peltola leading by 2 to 7 points, within or exceeding the margin of error. Alaska's ranked-choice voting system could further complicate the count.
The president's attacks on the Alaska race have intensified, with the Justice Department filing a lawsuit to block certification if Sullivan loses narrowly. Legal experts widely dismiss the suit as meritless, but Trump may pivot to demanding Senate Republicans refuse to seat Peltola.
Historical Precedent
Senate history offers a cautionary tale. In 1997, Republicans challenged Democrat Mary Landrieu's Louisiana Senate victory, alleging vote tampering. The Senate resolved it by seating Landrieu “without prejudice” and referring the matter to the Rules Committee, which eventually cleared her.
Steven S. Smith, a political science professor at Arizona State University, said Trump's allies have already framed the argument around fairness, even though Alaska courts have upheld the ballot inclusion. “They've set up the argument already that there's a deliberate deception on the part of the other Dan Sullivan,” he said.
Legal and Political Maneuvering
Alaska's Division of Elections, led by the Republican lieutenant governor, initially removed Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. from the ballot, but a state judge and the Alaska Supreme Court ordered his reinstatement. The ballot now lists “Dan S. Sullivan” for the incumbent and “Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.” for the challenger.
Peltola has called the DOJ suit a desperate GOP power grab, while some Republicans, including Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.), have backed a review of the ballot confusion. The situation has also fueled tensions between Trump and Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) over ranked-choice voting.
As the Senate prepares for a potentially explosive opening day, Thune faces a delicate balancing act between appeasing Trump and preserving the chamber's integrity. The outcome could set a precedent for future contested elections.
