Fresh economic data released this week underscores the difficult landscape Republicans face as early voting gets underway for the midterms. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday that the consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.7 percent in September, up from 3.4 percent in August. The following day, the agency revealed that wholesale prices posted their largest monthly jump in over four years, driven by soaring energy costs.
Republicans, already burdened by President Trump's unpopularity and the economic fallout from the Iran conflict, are scrambling to counter the narrative. "It's a continuation of bad news, confirming what voters are telling us every day of what they're experiencing," said Republican strategist Doug Heye, a former RNC communications director. Heye argued that while pre-existing issues existed, they have been "exacerbated proactively by the president," leaving the GOP in a precarious position.
In the last election cycle, Trump and Republicans campaigned on lowering the cost of essentials after inflation hit a 40-year high under former President Joe Biden. But inflation has rebounded, climbing from 3 percent in January 2025 to its current level—the highest since May. Public sentiment reflects this: a recent AP-NORC poll found roughly six in ten respondents believe the economy has worsened since Trump returned to office. Additionally, a NewsNation/Decision Desk HQ poll conducted this month showed nearly 51 percent of voters casting their midterm ballot to "oppose" Trump and his policies.
Democrats are capitalizing on the data, aiming to seize control of Congress for the remainder of Trump's term. The congressional Joint Economic Committee released a report this week estimating that gas price spikes from the Iran war have cost the average American family $856. Senator Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.) stated, "Instead of the relief President Trump promised, his war, tariffs, and other reckless policies continue to make it harder for families to afford the basics."
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright told The Hill that his party is "unified" around affordability for the first time in his lifetime. "All of them are talking about gas prices. Most of them are talking about the high cost of living," he said, adding that Democrats are "offering the solutions to the problems that Republicans have created." Jim Kessler of Third Way traced this messaging shift to last year's record-long government shutdown, which forced Democrats to focus on kitchen-table issues. "The most important thing about an election is to listen to voters and to reflect what they're feeling," Kessler explained.
Trump and Republicans are fighting back, accusing Democrats of being "communists" and pointing fingers at the Biden administration. Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, told NewsNation that Americans "were worse off" due to Biden's policies. Mike Marinella, NRCC spokesman, insisted that "President Trump and Republicans are working to lower costs and repair the damage Democrats left behind."
Energy prices remain a flashpoint. The average price of regular gas is roughly $4.33 per gallon, and diesel is $6.33, according to AAA—up from $3.06 and $3.65 a year ago. Wholesale energy prices jumped 10.8 percent in September, surpassing the March increase of 10.5 percent, indicating persistent pressure. Trump has touted a deal with Russia to boost diesel supplies, but prices have not yet eased.
With record ad spending and Trump fatigue sapping GOP enthusiasm, the economy's trajectory could prove decisive. As Cook Report moves races toward Democrats, the party is betting that voters' pocketbook concerns will outweigh other issues. The coming weeks will test whether Republicans can overcome the headwinds.
