Texas's Senate contest is descending into open Republican infighting just weeks before Election Day, as nominee Ken Paxton faces a barrage of negative coverage and Democrats sense a rare chance to flip the state.
On Thursday, President Trump publicly attacked incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove on Truth Social, accusing them of sabotaging Paxton's campaign. The attorney general has struggled with falling poll numbers and a steady stream of damaging headlines, giving his Democratic opponent, state Rep. James Talarico, a credible path to victory.
"Trump ought to be encouraging turnout in Texas instead of laying blame on an outgoing senator," said Chad Wilbanks, a Texas lobbyist and former executive director of the state GOP. "It's the name calling, it's the bashing," he added, referring to rhetoric from Paxton's populist backers. "It really turns a lot of voters off, quite candidly."
The president's ire comes after Cornyn, who lost to Paxton in a bitter primary runoff, has refused to campaign for him. Rove has even backed a Democrat in a downballot race. "The primary wounds still haven't healed," said Dan Eberhart, a Paxton donor, describing the dynamic as "McConnell versus MAGA."
Cornyn's allies dismiss the idea that the senator is undermining Paxton. "This is an indication that he thinks it's very possible that Paxton could lose, and that he wants to make sure he gets ahead of that story," said Brendan Steinhauser, who managed Cornyn's 2014 campaign. "If Sen. Cornyn had this much political power and influence, he would have simply reelected himself."
Matt Mackowick, another former Cornyn adviser, quoted the 1996 film "The Rock": "Losers always b--- about having their best. Winners go out and f--- the prom queen."
Republicans have long dominated Texas, which Trump won by double digits in all three of his presidential runs. But Paxton's scandal-plagued bid and Talarico's aggressive campaign have put the GOP on defense. Decision Desk HQ rates the race a toss-up, with Talarico narrowly leading in polling averages.
Trump has made Paxton a centerpiece of his recent Texas visits, but the nominee has privately complained that the party's convention "dropped our numbers," according to leaked audio. In other leaked clips, Paxton admitted his campaign is being run from Washington and that affordability is "why we're having a hard time with numbers."
Money has flooded the race. Talarico reported a staggering $64 million haul this summer, while Paxton raised $18 million. Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC injected $10 million in early September, and Elon Musk poured $158 million into a pro-Paxton super PAC. Total ad spending has surpassed $500 million, with Republicans outspending Democrats.
Some Republicans worry the cavalry arrived too late. "I wish they would have started earlier," Eberhart said. But others predict a polling boost from the cash infusion. "Ultimately, we think we will be successful," said one GOP source.
If Paxton is to win, many believe he'll need Gov. Greg Abbott to pull him across the finish line. "It's on Abbott to carry Paxton over the finish line," Eberhart said. "And if he wins, he owes Abbott a Texas-sized thank-you card." Abbott, however, is running his own competitive race and has largely kept his distance from the Senate contest.
The blame game has intensified as Trump points fingers at Cornyn and Rove for a potential loss, while defending his endorsement of Paxton. Meanwhile, Latino voters are being targeted as early voting approaches, and Talarico has criticized Biden's border policies while distancing himself from ICE tactics.
