Republican senators are increasingly viewing the ongoing conflict with Iran and the peace negotiations spearheaded by Vice President JD Vance as a defining test for the 2028 presidential primary. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are widely seen as the early front-runners for the GOP nomination.
The tentative agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has drawn sharp criticism from Republican defense hawks, who argue it is too favorable to Tehran. However, some GOP lawmakers acknowledge that if Vance can extract the U.S. from a costly war and persuade Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, it could become a significant political win.
But the potential for Iran to impose tolls on maritime traffic, amass tens of billions of dollars from oil exports, and continue stockpiling weapons-grade nuclear material while backing militant proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas could turn the deal into a political albatross for Vance. One anonymous GOP senator warned that the flow of money to Iran would be a recurring problem. “All this money for Iran is going to be a real problem,” the senator said. “He is being asked to sell it. All the money in there for Iran, I just think that’s going to be tough. It’s a lot of money.”
President Donald Trump has already made clear that Vance will bear the blame if negotiations falter. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump told reporters. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming JD.” Senator John Cornyn (R-TX) confirmed that Trump’s remark was no joke, adding that Trump’s push for talks was driven by concerns over midterm elections and surging gas prices. GOP senators have warned that Trump's economic disconnect risks midterm blowback.
Cornyn noted that Vance is taking on a “herculean task” because of the political risks. “My sense is the president was concerned about the midterm election and gas prices and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, so this gets that open, but I think he’s had to pay a very dear price to get that done,” Cornyn said. “I think we should be clear-eyed and realistic that this isn’t going to persuade the Iranian regime to go in peace.”
Rubio has kept his distance from the controversial memorandum of understanding, a move that has clear implications for 2028. While he said in December he would defer to Vance if the vice president runs, such denials are common in presidential politics. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX), another potential rival, has been outspoken in blasting the deal. “History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea,” Cruz said.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that only 1 in 4 Americans believe the conflict with Iran was worth the cost, and most doubt a peace deal will last. Gallup reports that 67% of Americans have been hit financially by surging gas prices amid the Iran conflict. MAGA influencer Laura Loomer warned she would not vote for any GOP candidate who “tries to normalize Islam” in 2028.
The 60-day ceasefire appears fragile after recent exchanges of strikes. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are scheduled for talks in Qatar as the situation remains volatile. Vance has argued the U.S. wins whether the deal succeeds or strikes escalate, but GOP senators remain skeptical.
