Former Republican National Committee Chair Ronna McDaniel conceded Tuesday that Democrats are likely to seize control of the House in next week's midterm elections, a stark admission from a senior GOP figure as the party scrambles to defend its narrow majority.
"I think the House, you know with three seats that the Dems need to pick up, is probably going to go to the Democrats," McDaniel told CBS News' Major Garrett. "And right now, all eyes are on the Senate, but certainly the map has expanded and Democrats are feeling bullish."
McDaniel's comments align with nonpartisan forecasts. Decision Desk HQ's latest projection gives Democrats roughly an 80% chance of winning the lower chamber, while the party's odds of flipping the Senate stand at about 57%.
McDaniel, who led the RNC from 2017 to 2024, pointed to President Trump's recent campaign travel to reliably Republican states—Kansas, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Texas—as evidence of GOP vulnerability. "I know for a fact, you're not in these states unless there's a data point that's driving him to spend time in those states," she said. "How many times has he been to Texas? I mean, we shouldn't be spending $200 million or $300 million in Texas to defend a Senate candidate, so there's a lot at stake."
Trump made his fourth visit to Texas in two months on Tuesday, holding rallies with GOP Senate nominee Ken Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock. The president's political action committee, MAGA Inc., has poured millions into the race to bolster Paxton against Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has emerged as a surprisingly strong challenger.
Talarico reported nearly $10 million in cash on hand in recent FEC filings, and polling among likely voters shows a competitive race. If Talarico wins, he would be the first Democrat to capture a Texas Senate seat since 1988, a prospect that has Republicans on edge.
During Tuesday's rallies, Trump attacked Talarico on immigration and energy policy, repeatedly using the derisive nickname "Talafreako." Talarico brushed off the taunts at his own Lubbock event, telling supporters, "That's a lot of Talafreakos in one room," before declaring Texas "ready for change."
McDaniel's warning comes as analysts shift more House races toward Democrats, and as Democrats prepare for potential post-election legal battles in key states. Meanwhile, a final Marist poll shows Democrats with an 8-point lead in the generic congressional ballot, underscoring the headwinds facing Republicans.
The midterm landscape has Democrats eyeing not just majorities but also potential oversight probes into the tech sector if they retake Congress. With control of the House and Senate hanging in the balance, both parties are racing to turn out their bases in the final days.
